MENA retail market to surpass $600 billion by 2035: global capital is reshaping Africa's consumer landscape.

MENA Retail Market to Surpass $600 Billion by 2035: Global Capital Is Reshaping Africa's Consumer Landscape

Event: A Decade-Long Consumer Expansion Forecast

According to a report by Market Research Future, the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) retail market reached $362.49 billion in 2024, is expected to grow to $379.57 billion in 2025, and is projected to expand to $601.53 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of 4.71% over the period. This forecast outlines a structural narrative of the region's consumer market shifting from an energy-dependent economy to a diversified domestic-demand market over the past decade.

Capital Sources: Dual Drivers of Gulf Family Capital and International Retailers

Current core players in the MENA retail market include the UAE's Al-Futtaim Group, Majid Al Futtaim, Saudi Arabia's Savola Group and Panda Retail, the UAE's Lulu Hypermarket, and Carrefour in Morocco, among others. This capital camp has a distinctly Gulf character: oil wealth is being allocated toward the consumer sector through sovereign funds and family businesses, while international retailers participate in the regional market through franchising or joint ventures, combining global retail expertise with local capital.

Investment Logic: Digitalization, Urbanization, and Consumption Upgrading Form the Basis for Long-Term Returns

Why is capital consistently betting on the MENA retail market? The report identifies several key drivers. E-commerce sales are expected to reach approximately $30 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of about 20%, indicating that digital channels are maturing rapidly. The urbanization rate is expected to exceed 70%, with population concentration in metropolitan areas providing density support for retail networks. Consumer spending is projected to surpass $1 trillion, while the expansion of the middle class creates multi-tiered demand ranging from mass-market to high-end premium products. Together, these factors lower the marginal cost of retail investment and enhance the visibility of long-term capital returns.

Furthermore, sustainable consumption and support for local brands are becoming new growth levers. Retailers are integrating environmentally friendly practices into supply chains and supporting local products, which not only aligns with consumer values but also reduces import dependence and strengthens the resilience of business models.

Regional Impact: Linkage Between North Africa and the Gulf Could Reshape Africa's Capital Flow Landscape

The geographic scope of the MENA market covers North Africa, which in turn has close trade and investment links with sub-Saharan Africa. The retail expansion trend highlighted in the report could affect overall capital flows in Africa through two pathways. First, Gulf capital's successful experience in the MENA retail sector may spill over into other high-growth African markets, forming new investment chains in supporting areas such as e-commerce, logistics, and digital payments. Second, international retailers are using North African gateways like Morocco as a bridgehead for entering Africa, further consolidating hub nodes within the region. This means that capital competition will no longer be confined to single-country markets but will unfold around trade corridors and consumer clusters.## Long-Term Trend: In the Next Decade, Capital Will Flow to Digital and Sustainable Infrastructure

From 2025 to 2035, the growth of the MENA retail market is expected to be driven primarily by e-commerce, mobile commerce, and social commerce, which will spur investment demand for infrastructure such as warehousing and logistics, last-mile delivery, and digital payments. At the same time, supply chain development for sustainable products will gain more financial support, and local brand incubation will also become an investment hotspot. For global capital, does the continued expansion of the MENA retail market signal a reassessment of the African continent's overall consumption potential? At the very least, it indicates that Middle Eastern capital is positioning the consumer economy as a long-term allocation direction, and North Africa is precisely the key corridor to the African continent's hinterland. This signal deserves serious attention from all institutions tracking capital flows in Africa.