China Leads Large Greenfield Investment Projects in Africa: The Capital Logic Behind US$4.7 Billion

Where Capital Is Flowing: China Leads Africa's Large-Scale Greenfield Projects

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2026, among the top ten newly announced foreign greenfield projects in Africa in 2025, China became the largest source country with total investment of nearly $4.7 billion. That figure comes from three projects: Hong Kong-based industrial group Golden Concord Holdings' $2.5 billion oil and gas investment in Ethiopia, Fujian Xiangxin Group's $1.1 billion oil and gas project in Zambia, and CMOC Group's $1.1 billion metals investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

These figures arrive at a delicate turning point: the total value of newly announced greenfield investments in Africa fell by nearly a third in 2025, yet the number of projects increased. This suggests that international capital is shifting from a few mega-projects toward a broader portfolio. China, by contrast, secured its top position through three large projects, demonstrating its concentrated push in strategic sectors.

Sources of Capital: Who Is Funding Africa's Energy Transition

Chinese capital is not alone on the scene. Qatar's Al Jedad Holding announced Africa's largest single project of 2025 in Ghana — a $5 billion chemicals investment. The UAE's Alpha MBM Investments is putting $4 billion into Uganda's oil and gas sector. Nigeria's Dangote Group, the only African investor in the top ten, announced a $3 billion chemicals project in Ethiopia. European capital is also active: Germany's Möhring Energie, France's TotalEnergies, the UK's BP, and automotive giant Stellantis are all positioning major projects in Mauritania, Angola, and Morocco respectively.

Notably, Gulf states are accelerating their entry into Africa's energy and chemicals sectors. Qatar and the UAE have each invested amounts surpassing any single Chinese project, reflecting the diversifying competition among global capital for Africa's oil and gas resources.

Investment Logic: Why These Countries and Sectors

The sector choices of China's three projects are highly consistent: oil, gas, and metals. The oil and gas project in Ethiopia, the oil and gas project in Zambia, and the metals project in the DRC all point to one core logic — controlling upstream resources to serve the global energy transition and manufacturing supply chains.

The DRC project further consolidates China's position in the global copper-cobalt supply chain. Copper and cobalt are core raw materials for electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, and advanced technologies. The Zambia investment targets the country's energy infrastructure gap as a major African mining economy. The Ethiopia project extends China's industrialization and energy engagement strategy in East Africa.

These investments are not merely about acquiring resources; they are about building an integrated chain from mine to processing. Chinese companies' advantage lies in their ability to rely on huge domestic manufacturing demand and engineering capabilities to embed African resource projects into global production networks.## Regional Capital Impact: Who Is Rising, Who Is Under Pressure

Chinese capital's deep involvement in Ethiopia, Zambia, and the DR Congo is strengthening these countries' status as regional resource hubs. Ethiopia, with its large labor force and improving infrastructure, is attracting more manufacturing and energy investment. Zambia and the DR Congo, meanwhile, form the core of the Central African Copperbelt, becoming a focal point in the global contest for critical minerals.

At the same time, Ghana and Uganda have received huge capital inflows from large chemical and oil and gas projects, positioning them as potential new energy and chemical centers in West and East Africa. Nigeria's Dangote Group has invested across borders into Ethiopia, indicating that African local capital is also beginning to seek growth points within the region.

However, the decline in overall investment also signals risks: Africa's greenfield investment remains highly dependent on commodity prices and global liquidity. Should the energy transition slow down or interest rates rise, the financing and return cycles of these projects could face pressure.

Long-Term Trends: How Capital Will Be Positioned Over the Next Five to Fifteen Years

The UNCTAD report points out that sectoral investment in Africa remains highly concentrated in energy infrastructure, oil and gas, mining, and renewable energy. This is directly related to the demand for critical minerals brought about by the global energy transition. Over the next five to fifteen years, global competition for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel will only intensify, and Africa's strategic position as a major resource supplier will continue to rise.

At the same time, investment in digital infrastructure is beginning to attract attention, although the scale of data center projects in Africa is still much smaller than in developed economies. As population growth and urbanization advance, consumer markets, fintech, and manufacturing upgrades will gradually become new investment hotspots.

For global capital, Africa is no longer just a source of resources; it is becoming a key node in the restructuring of global supply chains. China, Gulf countries, Europe, and the United States are all trying to embed themselves in this node in different ways. The choices of capital are redrawing Africa's investment map.