Canada Mining 2026 Trends: The Battle for Critical Minerals and Global Capital Flows

In 2026, Canada's mining industry stands at a critical turning point. According to Torys LLP's Q2 2026 industry analysis, accelerated permitting, M&A consolidation, and foreign investment review are simultaneously reshaping the industry ecosystem. This is not only a domestic industrial policy shift in Canada, but also a clear signal that global capital is reassessing the value of resource assets.

What is happening: Three structural changes in Canada's mining industry

First, the permitting environment is being systematically loosened. At the federal level, the Building Canada Act established the Major Projects Office (MPO), which currently includes 13 projects, 5 of them mining projects. At the provincial level, British Columbia's Infrastructure Projects Act, Ontario's Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act, and Quebec's proposed single-authorization legislation are all attempting to shorten permitting timelines. For investors, uncertainty in permitting timelines is often a deadlier risk than price volatility. Canada is trying to turn "predictability" into a competitive advantage.

Second, the M&A market is experiencing its most active period in six years. In 2025, total Canadian metals and mining M&A transaction value reached US$70 billion, the highest since 2020. Consolidation, divestiture of non-core assets, and joint ventures/partnership development have become the three main transaction themes.

Third, foreign investment review is tightening. Resource, energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure projects face stricter reviews under the Investment Canada Act. The Canadian government is trying to strike a balance between "protecting national interests" and "attracting foreign investment," and this balance itself is reshaping capital flows.

Why capital is flooding in: The dual drivers of copper and gold

The global energy transition has given copper a new strategic status. The US$57 billion "merger of equals" between Anglo American and Teck Resources is the clearest illustration—by combining Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca II, the two companies aim to unlock synergies in copper projects. Capital is voting with its feet: whoever controls copper holds the key to electrification.

At the same time, record gold prices have ignited M&A enthusiasm in the gold sector. Since the beginning of 2025, nine acquisitions involving Canadian gold miners, each exceeding US$1 billion, have occurred. Gold's safe-haven attributes and copper's industrial attributes are together supporting a two-track allocation of mining capital.

How capital is flowing: Consolidation, divestiture, and joint ventures

Large mining companies are streamlining, focusing on core assets and primary commodities, and selling non-core projects to mid-sized and smaller companies. This trend has generated a large number of middle-market transactions and revived historic mining camps—Discovery Silver's acquisition of Newmont's Porcupine mine and Hemlo Mining's acquisition of Barrick's Hemlo mine are typical examples.Meanwhile, joint ventures and partnership-based development have become new structural options. Vale Base Metals and Glencore Canada are evaluating the combination of their operations in the Sudbury Basin to extend mine life and increase capacity. Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce high-grade copper deposits, capital is no longer fixated on "exclusive ownership" but instead seeks returns through risk-sharing and shared infrastructure.

Implications for Africa: Global capital is re-evaluating the resource landscape

Canada's tightened foreign investment review means that some cross-border capital may reconsider the compliance costs and time costs of allocating resources in Canada. At the same time, global capital's appetite for critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel will not diminish—it will only intensify. This creates a new window of opportunity for African countries with abundant mineral resources.

But what Africa should take from Canada's experience is not only "opportunity" but also "conditions." While accelerating approvals, Canada still treats Indigenous rights and consultation obligations as core requirements for project advancement. This reminds African nations: clear property rights systems, stable approval frameworks, and consensus on community interests are the fundamental prerequisites for attracting long-term mining capital. Africa's real competition is not just ore grade, but institutional certainty.

Capital Signals: Where is capital flowing?

• Flowing toward: Critical minerals, especially copper; gold; and strategic resources related to the energy transition and defense industries.
• Flowing away from: Jurisdictions with unpredictable approval timelines, policy volatility, and high legal uncertainty.
• Watching: The "new vitality" investment opportunities created by mid-sized companies acquiring non-core assets from major miners, as well as the value of joint venture structures in reducing risk.

Conclusion

As capital begins to scrutinize resource projects with a more discerning eye, Africa needs to find its place in the restructuring of global supply chains. What is happening in Canada's mining industry may well be a preview of Africa's next wave of resource investment.

Source: Torys LLP - The key trends shaping Canada's mining industry in 2026