2024年非洲FDI创纪录970亿美元：资本流向的结构性转向

The Macro Picture of Capital Inflow

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2025 World Investment Report, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Africa surged by 75% year-on-year in 2024, reaching a historic peak of USD 97 billion, and accounting for 6% of global FDI, up from 4% the previous year. Behind this figure was the strong support of an international project financing deal for a large-scale urban development project in Egypt; excluding that deal, African FDI still achieved solid growth of 12%, to approximately USD 62 billion.

The core signal released by this data is that Africa, as a destination for global capital allocation, is undergoing a structural revaluation. But the revaluation is not balanced—the concentration of capital flows, sector preferences, and regional divergence matter more than the record total.

Sources of Capital: Europe Dominates Stock, Chinese Capital Accelerates Diversification

UNCTAD data shows that European investors still hold the largest FDI stock in Africa, followed by the United States and China. China's cumulative investment in Africa has reached USD 42 billion, and is expanding into non-traditional fields such as pharmaceuticals and food processing. Particularly noteworthy is that one third of China's Belt and Road Initiative-related projects now focus on social infrastructure and renewable energy—marking a shift of Chinese capital from traditional resource extraction and large-scale infrastructure toward deeper industrial supporting facilities and green energy.

This diversification of funding sources reduces Africa's dependence on capital from any single economy and also provides capital markets with richer reference points for risk pricing.

Investment Logic: Why Egypt and North Africa?

The main engine of Africa's FDI growth in 2024 was in North Africa. Egypt, with its international project financing for large-scale urban development projects, became the continent's capital magnet that year; Tunisia and Morocco also recorded growth of 21% and 55%, respectively. North Africa's attractiveness is no accident: proximity to European markets, a mature manufacturing base and energy export channels, coupled with policy liberalization reforms in some countries, make the region a gateway for multinational enterprises entering Africa.

At the sector level, total international project finance (IPF) transactions grew by 15%, driven by large energy and transportation infrastructure projects. Egypt's IPF commitments more than doubled, with renewable energy being the only sector to see significant growth—seven large deals with a total value of about USD 17 billion, covering offshore transmission cables, wind power and solar photovoltaic projects. Other renewable energy investments also appeared in Morocco, Namibia and Tunisia.

This reveals a clear logic: the energy transition is reshaping the direction of resource investment in Africa. Capital attention to traditional fossil energy projects is giving way to renewable energy and power interconnection infrastructure.

Regional Capital Impact: North Africa Siphons, Sub-Saharan Africa DivergeDespite record overall figures, capital distribution within Africa remains uneven. In 2024, against a backdrop of growth across most subregions, North Africa stood out in particular. North Africa's greenfield investment bucked the trend with a 12% increase, reaching $76 billion and accounting for two-thirds of the continent's project capital expenditure. By contrast, greenfield investment announcements across Africa as a whole fell by 37% to $113 billion, with the number of projects also down 5%.

More concerning, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A)—which typically account for around 15% of Africa's FDI—turned negative in 2024. This signals a phase of contraction in multinational enterprises' willingness to enter African markets through M&A. At the same time, the value of greenfield investment in electricity and gas supply plunged by $51 billion, while construction and fabricated metal products became the fastest-growing sectors for greenfield investment.

These signals indicate that capital is not simply "leaving" Africa, but rather selectively repricing risk. The cooling of traditional energy projects and the warming of manufacturing and metal processing reflect the deep impact of global supply chain restructuring and resource security concerns on Africa's investment landscape.The answer is: a qualified yes. The reassessment of capital is not holistic but unfolds by region, by sector, and by stage. North Africa has taken the lead in gaining a premium thanks to its geographic advantages and reform progress; renewable energy and manufacturing have received structural incremental attention; while sectors dependent on traditional energy are undergoing capital repricing. Africa remains a highly differentiated market, but the 2024 data shows that those economies that can offer policy stability, infrastructure support, and energy transition opportunities are becoming the winners in the new cycle of global capital allocation.

This may herald new changes in the pattern of capital flows to Africa over the next decade: capital is no longer merely chasing resources, but is beginning to chase supply chain resilience, green premiums, and consumer market potential. For international investors, Africa's appeal is shifting from "resource endowments" to "institutional dividends and locational advantages."